Potential aboveground biomass increase in Brazilian Atlantic Forest fragments with climate change.

Fragmented tropical forest landscapes preserve much of the remaining biodiversity and carbon stocks. Climate change is expected to intensify droughts and increase fire hazard and fire intensities, thereby causing habitat deterioration, and losses of biodiversity and carbon stock losses. Understanding the trajectories that these landscapes may follow under increased climate pressure is imperative for establishing strategies for conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we used a quantitative predictive modelling approach to project the spatial distribution of the aboveground biomass density (AGB) by the end of the 21st century across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) domain. To develop the models, we used the maximum entropy method with projected climate data to 2100, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 from the fifth Assessment Report. Our AGB models had a satisfactory performance (area under the curve > 0.75 and p value < .05). The models projected a significant increase of 8.5% in the total carbon stock. Overall, the projections indicated that 76.9% of the AF domain would have suitable climatic conditions for increasing biomass by 2100 considering the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the absence of deforestation. Of the existing forest fragments, 34.7% are projected to increase their AGB, while 2.6% are projected to have their AGB reduced by 2100. The regions likely to lose most AGB-up to 40% compared to the baseline-are found between latitudes 13° and 20° south. Overall, although climate change effects on AGB vary latitudinally for the 2071-2100 period under the RCP 4.5 scenario, our model indicates that AGB stocks can potentially increase across a large fraction of the AF. The patterns found here are recommended to be taken into consideration during the planning of restoration efforts, as part of climate change mitigation strategies in the AF and elsewhere in Brazil.

Effects of climate and land-use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon.

The joint and relative effects of future land-use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041-2070) and late (2071-2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change. Considering climate only, the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The best-case land-use scenario ("Sustainability") alone causes a 10.6% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3, while the worse-case land-use scenario ("Fragmentation") causes a 73.2% increase. The optimistic climate-land-use projection (Sustainability and RCP 4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 in October by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, the most pessimistic climate-land-use projection (Fragmentation and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land-use and RCP 8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3. We conclude that avoiding the regress on land-use governance in the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.

Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts.

Extreme droughts have been recurrent in the Amazon over the past decades, causing socio-economic and environmental impacts. Here, we investigate the vulnerability of Amazonian forests, both undisturbed and human-modified, to repeated droughts. We defined vulnerability as a measure of (i) exposure, which is the degree to which these ecosystems were exposed to droughts, and (ii) its sensitivity, measured as the degree to which the drought has affected remote sensing-derived forest greenness. The exposure was calculated by assessing the meteorological drought, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD), which is related to vegetation water stress, from 1981 to 2016. The sensitivity was assessed based on the enhanced vegetation index anomalies (AEVI), derived from the newly available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC) product, from 2003 to 2016, which is indicative of forest's photosynthetic capacity. We estimated that 46% of the Brazilian Amazon biome was under severe to extreme drought in 2015/2016 as measured by the SPI, compared with 16% and 8% for the 2009/2010 and 2004/2005 droughts, respectively. The most recent drought (2015/2016) affected the largest area since the drought of 1981. Droughts tend to increase the variance of the photosynthetic capacity of Amazonian forests as based on the minimum and maximum AEVI analysis. However, the area showing a reduction in photosynthetic capacity prevails in the signal, reaching more than 400 000 km2 of forests, four orders of magnitude larger than areas with AEVI enhancement. Moreover, the intensity of the negative AEVI steadily increased from 2005 to 2016. These results indicate that during the analysed period drought impacts were being exacerbated through time. Forests in the twenty-first century are becoming more vulnerable to droughts, with larger areas intensively and negatively responding to water shortage in the region.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

The natural and social history of the indigenous lands and protected areas corridor of the Xingu River basin.

The 280,000 km² Xingu indigenous lands and protected areas (ILPAs) corridor, inhabited by 24 indigenous peoples and about 215 riverine (ribeirinho) families, lies across active agriculture frontiers in some of the historically highest-deforestation regions of the Amazon. Much of the Xingu is anthropogenic landscape, densely inhabited and managed by indigenous populations over the past millennium. Indigenous and riverine peoples' historical management and use of these landscapes have enabled their long-term occupation and ultimately their protection. The corridor vividly demonstrates how ILPAs halt deforestation and why they may account for a large part of the 70 per cent reduction in Amazon deforestation below the 1996-2005 average since 2005. However, ongoing and planned dams, road paving, logging and mining, together with increasing demand for agricultural commodities, continued degradation of upper headwaters outside ILPA borders and climate change impacts may render these gains ephemeral. Local peoples will need new, bottom-up, forms of governance to gain recognition for the high social and biological diversity of these territories in development policy and planning, and finance commensurate with the value of their ecosystem services. Indigenous groups' reports of changing fire and rainfall regimes may themselves evidence climate change impacts, a new and serious threat.

Efeito da exploração madeireira sobre o número de indivíduos férteis de três espécies arbóreas comerciais na Amazônia oriental / Effects of logging on the number of fertile individuals of three commercial tree species in Eastern Amazonia

Estudos da ecologia reprodutiva de árvores são fundamentais para compreender os possíveis impactos da exploração madeireira e para subsidiar o aperfeiçoamento das práticas de manejo. Os objetivos desse trabalho foram: 1) estimar a proporção e o número de indivíduos reprodutivos por classe de diâmetro de Chrysophyllum lucentifolium subsp. pachycarpum, Lecythis lurida e Pseudopiptadenia psilostachya, três espécies madeireiras, em uma floresta em Paragominas (PA) e; 2) estimar o impacto da exploração de 90 por cento dos indivíduos com DAP > 50 cm sobre o número de indivíduos reprodutivos das mesmas espécies no local. Durante uma estação reprodutiva de cada espécie, foram amostradas 80 árvores de L. lurida, 76 de P. psilostachya e 76 de C. lucentifolium. Foi estimado que 14,9 por cento de todos os indivíduos férteis de C. lucentifolium, 35,9 por cento de L. lurida e 72,4 por cento de P. psilostachya tinham DAP > 50 cm no ano de amostragem. Assim, o corte de 90 por cento dessas árvores causaria uma redução de 13,4 por cento, 32,6 por cento e 65,2 por cento do número de indivíduos férteis de C. lucentifolium, L. lurida e P. psilostachya, respectivamente. Se as proporções de indivíduos férteis fossem constantes ao longo do tempo, para preservar metade dos indivíduos férteis de P. psilostachya seria necessário manter 30 por cento e não 10 por cento daqueles com DAP > 50 cm. Os resultados indicam que, adotando-se um único diâmetro mínimo de corte e retendo-se a mesma proporção de árvores acima desse diâmetro, o efeito em termos de porcentagem de indivíduos reprodutivos retirados da população pode variar entre espécies na ordem de aproximadamente cinco vezes.

Studies concerning the reproductive ecology of trees are important so as to better understand the impacts of logging and for the definition of guidelines to improve management practices. The aim of this study was to estimate (1) the number and proportion of reproductive individuals of Chrysophyllum lucentifolium subsp. pachycarpum, Lecythis lurida e Pseudopiptadenia psilostachya per size class, and (2) the impact of harvesting 90 percent of individuals > 50 cm dbh on the number of reproductive trees. We sampled 80 L. lurida, 76 P. psilostachya and 76 C. lucentifolium trees during one reproductive season. We estimated that 14.9 percent of all fertile individuals of C. lucentifolium, 35.9 percent of L. lurida and 72.4 percent of P. psilostachya were > 50 cm dbh in that year. Therefore, the harvest of 90 percent of these trees would cause a 13.4 percent, 32.6 percent, and 65.2 percent reduction in the number of fertile individuals of C. lucentifolium, L. lurida and P. psilostachya, respectively. If these proportions were stable over time, it would be necessary to keep 30 percent instead of 10 percent of individuals > 50 cm dbh in order to preserve half of the P. psilostachya fertile individuals. The results indicate that the effects of adopting a single minimum cutting diameter and of setting aside the same proportion of trees above that diameter on the proportion of remaining fertile individuals may vary by a factor of five among species.